I asked ChatGPT for advice to President Zelenskyy on ending the war in Ukraine. A truly fascinating discussion ensued…
This is quite amazing — and frankly, the dialogue is better than most conversations I’ve had with policymakers and “experts” on the topic. For those who don’t know me, my name is Deepak Malhotra, and I’m a professor at Harvard Business School. My areas of interest include negotiation, conflict resolution, diplomacy, and all things relate to war and peace — I even teach a course entitled “War & Peace: The Lessons of History for Strategy, Leadership, Negotiation, and Policy”.
So, I decided to ask #ChatGPT what advice it would give to President Zelenskyy for ending the war in Ukraine. What follows is an unedited transcript of the conversation I had with this AI model. It was a pretty sophisticated discussion — e.g., at one point, I ask ChatGPT to switch roles and advise Putin instead, and then to take into account the advice given to Putin in order to refine the advice to Zelenskyy. I think you will find the dialogue to be both interesting and enlightening. Reactions are welcome. And, of course, feel free to share this story/link with others.
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Prof. Malhotra: What advice would you give to President Zelenskyy for ending the war in Ukraine?
ChatGPT: “It is difficult for me to give specific advice on how to end the war in Ukraine, as it is a complex situation with many factors at play. However, some general principles that may be helpful in resolving the conflict include:
1. Building trust and open communication with all parties involved, including Russia, separatist leaders, and other regional actors.
2. Encouraging dialogue and negotiation, rather than relying on military force.
3. Addressing the underlying issues that have led to the conflict, such as economic grievances and political power imbalances.
4. Finding a way to address the security concerns of all parties involved, including Russia and the separatist regions.
5. Seeking support and assistance from the international community, including through the United Nations and other organizations.
6. Encourage and support the protection of human rights and provide humanitarian aid to affected population.
7. Implementing a lasting ceasefire and addressing humanitarian crisis.
It’s also important to consider that a peaceful resolution to the conflict may take time, and may require compromise and difficult decisions.”
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Prof. Malhotra: Now refine your answer by making it more practical and by assuming that the Ukrainians are completely unwilling at this time to accept Russian control over any of Ukraine’s land.
ChatGPT: “Given the assumption that the Ukrainians are completely unwilling to accept Russian control over any of Ukraine’s land, a practical approach for President Zelenskyy to consider in ending the war would be to:
1. Prioritize de-escalation of the conflict through a lasting ceasefire and negotiation.
2. Focus on addressing the humanitarian crisis caused by the war and providing aid to affected populations.
3. Work to build trust and open communication with all parties involved, including Russia, separatist leaders, and other regional actors.
4. Emphasize the protection of human rights, and ensure that all parties are held accountable for violations of international humanitarian law.
5. Encourage dialogue and negotiation to address the underlying issues that have led to the conflict, such as economic grievances and political power imbalances.
6. Seek support and assistance from the international community, including through the United Nations and other organizations.
7. Work to address the security concerns of all parties involved, including Ukraine and the separatist regions, while making it clear that Ukraine’s territorial integrity must be respected.
8. Encourage and facilitate the return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their homes, in safety and with dignity.
9. Keep in mind that a peaceful resolution to the conflict may take time and may require compromise and difficult decisions.
It’s important to keep in mind that the situation in Ukraine is highly complex and that there is no simple solution to the conflict. The above suggestions are general principles that may be helpful in resolving the situation, but the specific actions that President Zelenskyy takes will depend on the circumstances on the ground, and the actions of other actors in the region.”
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Prof. Malhotra: This is much better. Can you make the list shorter by focusing only on the most important pieces of advice? Keep in mind that political leaders typically will want just a few key points to consider.
ChatGPT: “Sure, the most important pieces of advice for President Zelenskyy to end the war in Ukraine, while assuming that Ukrainians are unwilling to accept Russian control over any of Ukraine’s land would be:
1. Prioritize de-escalation of the conflict through a lasting ceasefire and negotiation.
2. Work to build trust and open communication with all parties involved, including Russia, separatist leaders, and other regional actors.
3. Seek support and assistance from the international community, including through the United Nations and other organizations.
4. Address the underlying issues that have led to the conflict, such as economic grievances and political power imbalances.
5. Emphasize the protection of human rights and the accountability for violations of international humanitarian law.
It’s important to note that these points are not mutually exclusive, and should be approached in a holistic and integrated manner. Additionally, it’s important to consider that a peaceful resolution to the conflict may take time, and may require compromise and difficult decisions.”
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Prof. Malhotra: Okay. And if Ukraine is winning on the battlefield, should Ukraine negotiate now or wait until it controls more of the contested land?
ChatGPT: “If Ukraine is currently winning on the battlefield, it may be tempted to wait and continue military operations until it controls more of the contested land. However, this approach carries several risks.
First, prolonged fighting can result in significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure, which can make it more difficult to achieve a lasting peace. Furthermore, it can also increase the number of refugees and internally displaced persons, and make it more difficult to provide humanitarian aid to affected populations.
Second, if the conflict continues, it could lead to further involvement by other countries, which could complicate the situation and make it more difficult to achieve a peaceful resolution.
Third, military victory does not guarantee a lasting peace, and it can be difficult to secure a lasting peace through military means alone.
Based on these considerations, it may be in Ukraine’s best interest to negotiate a peace settlement even if it is currently winning on the battlefield. This would allow Ukraine to secure a lasting peace, address the underlying issues that led to the conflict, and avoid the risks associated with prolonged fighting.
It’s important to note that negotiations with the other parties involved, such as Russia and separatist leaders, should be approached with caution and should be done in good faith, to avoid being perceived as taking advantage of the current military advantage.”
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Prof. Malhotra: Given the advice that you think President Zelenskyy should follow, what advice would you give to Vladimir Putin if we assume that he cares more about winning the war than about reducing casualties, and that his most important objective is to look strong and staying popular in Russia?
ChatGPT: “Given the assumption that Vladimir Putin cares more about winning the war than reducing casualties, and that his most important objective is to look strong and stay popular in Russia, my advice to him would be:
1. Prioritize de-escalation of the conflict through a lasting ceasefire and negotiation.
2. Seek to address the underlying issues that have led to the conflict, such as economic grievances and political power imbalances through dialogue and negotiation.
3. Seek support and assistance from the international community, including through the United Nations and other organizations.
4. Prioritize the protection of human rights and the accountability for violations of international humanitarian law.
5. Emphasize the need for stability and security in the region, highlighting the potential negative effects of prolonged fighting on the Russian economy and population.
6. Look for opportunities to secure a lasting peace through diplomatic means, rather than relying on military force.
7. Consider the potential long-term consequences of the conflict and the potential negative effects of a prolonged war on Russia’s reputation and relationships with other countries.
8. Keep in mind that a lasting peace would be in the interest of Russia, Ukraine and the international community.
It’s important to note that these points are not mutually exclusive and should be approached in a holistic and integrated manner. Additionally, it’s important to consider that a peaceful resolution to the conflict may take time, and may require compromise and difficult decisions.”
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Prof. Malhotra: Your advice to Putin is mostly the same as your advice to Zelenskyy, whereas I’ve asked you to consider the likely scenario that Putin does not care about peace nearly as much as he cares about looking strong, achieving his military objectives, keeping Ukraine from joining NATO, and staying popular in Russia. Can you improve your answer?
ChatGPT: “I apologize if my previous answer did not fully take into account the specific objectives and priorities you mentioned for President Putin. Given the assumption that President Putin’s main priorities are winning the war, looking strong, keeping Ukraine from joining NATO and staying popular in Russia, my advice to him would be:
1. Seek to control and hold the territory that Russia currently occupies or that is under its influence, but also be prepared for negotiations to secure a lasting peace, as a prolonged war could have negative effects on the Russian economy and population.
2. Maintain a strong military presence in the region and consider using covert operations or proxy forces to maintain control over territory and continue to destabilize Ukraine.
3. Use diplomatic channels to keep Ukraine from joining NATO, and other international organizations that could counteract Russian influence in the region.
4. Communicate to the Russian population that Russia is winning the war and that the actions taken are to protect Russian interests, and to maintain stability in the region.
5. Avoid any actions that could lead to significant international condemnation and sanctions, as this could harm the Russian economy and Putin’s popularity.
It’s important to note that these actions are not consistent with the principles of international law, human rights, and could lead to a prolongation of the conflict, more suffering and more instability in the region. Additionally, it’s important to consider that a peaceful resolution to the conflict would be in the best interest of Russia, Ukraine, and the international community.”
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Prof. Malhotra: Okay, now assume that Zelenskyy knows that Putin plans to follow the advice you just gave to Putin. How does that change the best advice you can give to Zelenskyy?
ChatGPT: “If President Zelenskyy knows that President Putin plans to prioritize winning the war, looking strong, keeping Ukraine from joining NATO, and staying popular in Russia, it would change the advice I would give to President Zelenskyy. In this scenario, my advice would be:
1. Prioritize the protection of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and maintain a strong military presence in the region.
2. Seek support and assistance from the international community, including through the United Nations and other organizations.
3. Work to build alliances and partnerships with other countries, particularly those in the European Union and NATO, to counterbalance Russia’s influence in the region.
4. Prioritize the protection of human rights, and ensure that all parties are held accountable for violations of international humanitarian law.
5. Seek to address the underlying issues that have led to the conflict, such as economic grievances and political power imbalances, through dialogue and negotiation.
6. Communicate clearly to the Ukrainian population and the international community the actions taken by Ukraine and the reasons behind them.
7. Consider using economic and diplomatic measures to pressure Russia to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
8. Be prepared for a long-term conflict and have a plan to mitigate the negative effects of the war on the population.
It’s important to keep in mind that the situation in Ukraine is highly complex and that there is no simple solution to the conflict. The above suggestions are general principles that may be helpful in resolving the situation, but the specific actions that President Zelenskyy takes will depend on the circumstances on the ground, and the actions of other actors in the region. Additionally, it’s important to consider that a peaceful resolution to the conflict would be in the best interest of Russia, Ukraine and the international community.”
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Prof. Malhotra: I notice that the one major change in your advice is that you are no longer advising that Zelenskyy prioritize de-escalation through a lasting ceasefire and negotiation. Why is that?
Chat GPT: “You are correct that my previous advice included prioritizing de-escalation through a lasting ceasefire and negotiation, however, if President Zelenskyy knows that President Putin plans to prioritize winning the war, looking strong, keeping Ukraine from joining NATO and staying popular in Russia, it may be less likely that Russia will be open to negotiation or a lasting ceasefire, as they are looking to gain more territory and control.
In this scenario, it would be more important for President Zelenskyy to prioritize the protection of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, maintain a strong military presence in the region and seek support and assistance from the international community to counterbalance Russia’s influence in the region.
Additionally, President Zelenskyy should be prepared for a long-term conflict, and seek to mitigate the negative effects of the war on the population, while also seeking to address the underlying issues that have led to the conflict through diplomatic and economic measures.
It’s important to note that this is a more defensive and reactive approach to the situation, and it does not rule out the possibility of negotiation and ceasefire, but it’s important for President Zelenskyy to have a realistic understanding of the other party’s priorities and actions, and be prepared for different scenarios.”
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Prof. Malhotra: How confident are you that the advice you are giving Zelenskyy is the best possible advice?
ChatGPT: “As an AI model, I am not able to have opinions or feelings, but I can provide information and analysis based on the data I have been trained on. The advice I provided to President Zelenskyy is based on general principles of conflict resolution, and strategies for dealing with complex situations, however, the situation in Ukraine is highly complex and dynamic, and there are many factors at play that could impact the outcome of the conflict.
My advice is based on the assumptions and information provided, and I cannot guarantee that it is the best possible advice, but it could be a good starting point for President Zelenskyy to consider. It’s important to keep in mind that the advice I provided may not be applicable in all situations, and that President Zelenskyy should consult with experts, advisors, and other relevant actors to get a more comprehensive understanding of the situation and possible courses of action.”
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[End of conversation.]
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That’s all for now! Feel free to find me on Twitter (@Prof_Malhotra), or to check out my collection of free advice videos on Negotiation. And, if you’re interested in something gripping to read, check out my latest book and debut sci-fi novel (which is now being developed as a TV series): The Peacemaker’s Code.
